Change and hope for the future are increasingly evident in Burma (Myanmar).

President Thein Sein is leader of the soft-liners.  He is said to be listening to the younger generation of military officers who feel that there should be a reconciliation with the country’s pro-democracy forces to get the sanctions lifted and move the economy and the country forward.  The new president is Senior General Than Shwe’s hand-picked successor so the former leader deserves a share of credit if in fact meaningful change is happening. Could it be that before the elections and the creation of the new government, General Than Shwe and the powers that be decided Burma must have its version of “opening up,” like China and Vietnam before it? Clearly, the first goal is the lifting of Western economic sanctions and second, the strategic realignment away from China to a more multilateral foreign policy.

But, longer term, is this the initiation, and acceptance, of what in the past has been termed, “the third way?” That is, a way forward between the perpetuation of the military’s domination of Burma’s political and economic life (which predates recent governments and has deep roots in Burma’s history) and its most radical alternative: revolution. Perhaps the most prominent and eloquent proponent of “the third way” is Thant Myint-U, grandson of former UN general-secretary U Thant and author of the best selling books, The River of Lost Footsteps: A Personal History of Burma and Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia.

Of course, a decision to change course seems logical and necessary. A Burmese political and economic system run solely by the military hasn’t been effective in meeting the needs of the majority of its citizens.  But is revolutionary change the only solution?

Revolutions are risky.  Historically, minorities suffer in revolutions.  Burma is a country of minorities; there are nearly 150 different ethnic groups representing around 40% of the population. And Burma is chock full historical resentments, not just between the the minorities and the majority Bama but also between and within the minorities groups and between Bamas themselves.  Burma is like a more complicated Yugoslavia. The past military government signed 17 peace agreements with various ethnic armies. The United States only had one civil war; some would say it still sears our country, 150 years later. What is the effect of 17 civil wars?

Another problem is revolutions eat their young.  Everyone is happy for awhile but history tells us things soon get out of control, the original leaders are deposed or disappeared. Powerful, ruthless interests take over and the revolution is hijacked to an unintended destination.  Yes, things can get worse–and for a long time–as they did in post-revolutionary Russia and China.  I have been to Burma six times in the past five years and I can confirm Aung San Suu Kyi’s near universal popularity. Unfortunately, that may be the only topic of universal agreement in Burma. In a revolutionary scenario, as popular as she is, I still fear for her safety. Impossible?  One need look only at her family history: after World War II,  her father, General Aung San, was leader of the anti-colonial forces, a national hero and Burma’s most beloved figure. He was widely expected to become leader of the country but was assassinated prior to the election. Historians don’t why for sure but most likely the cause was jealousy and political rivalry. Hope was dashed and he became a martyr.

Burma is one of the most difficult countries in the world to govern because of its history, ethnic conflicts and its geography. As one Burmese diplomat told me, like a baby continually and violently moved  from one cradle to another, for the past 150 years Burma  has suffered trauma after trauma and the country has never developed in a normal way. In fact, Burma does need a strong central government. It has one. What it also needs is a more popular government and a more effective economy.  Daw Suu is wise to work within the system to reform Burma’s government. There is the prospect of reform and economic progress at a good price: peaceful change.

Perhaps former General Than Shwe has been thinking about how history will view his leadership. Putting the country on a path to catching up to the economic success of its Asian neighbors would help his legacy immensely. But to do that, like China and Vietnam before it, Burma needs to “open up.” He knows this goal will be achieved only with the participation of Aung San Suu Kyi, or her hand-picked successor.

Wouldn’t it be remarkable if at a time when much of the rest of the world is suffering economic malaise and political fractiousness, Burma had an economic boom and achieved greater political unity? If this is indeed the beginning of a “third way”–and it is successful– might not history see former General Than Shwe and Aung San Sui Kyi as the father and the mother of a modern Burma? Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.

The proof of a new policy will be in the benefit to the average Burmese. That still seems far off. Given the repeated suffering and psychic wounds felt by its people, the Burmese should be forgiven their suspicion any meaningful change will happen. They require more evidence.

—Chris Dodge

 

 

 

 

Win Pe used to introduce me to friends, “This is Chris. He is my biographer.” He would say it with a twinkle in his eyes, a little smack of his lips and a tilt of his head. A big smile would appear and then a healthy guffaw– poking fun at us both; at himself for saying he had a biographer and at me for claiming to be one. As if to say, yes, this is a fine idea, let’s go forward but let’s not take ourselves too seriously. After all, we’ll all be swept away before long. This is classic Win Pe. All who know him well will recognize him here. Modest, supportive and thoughtful but, at his best, in his art and in his life, Win Pe is playful and whimsical. He is a good Buddhist: Life is temporary. Grasping is pointless.

Of course, Win Pe is worthy of a biographer, many biographers. They will come along. I just wish to tell some stories about Win Pe.

Everything here is original. My primary source is Win Pe himself. I have interviewed him many, many times over the past four years. Sometimes we just have lunch or coffee and talk as friends. He lives nearby. Ma Thanegi, Kin Maung Yin and Paw Thame–close friends with Win Pe for all of their adult lives–and more recently my friends too, provided background information and specific stories and opinions. Others, in Burma and here in the United States, too many to name, discussed Win Pe with me. I thank them all. I have not sought approval from anyone, including Win Pe, for these writings. Any errors herein are mine alone.

–Chris Dodge